Frequency analysis of annual maximum earthquakes for Aşkale, Erzurum (Turkey) province

The aim of this study is to investigate the seismicity of Aşkale County which is located 45 km from Erzurum city in eastern Turkey, a statistical frequency analysis is applied for the annual maximum earthquake magnitudes, occurred between 1900 – 2014 years in the seismotectonic zones around Aşkale County, using various probability distribution models (GEV, Gumbel, Gamma and Pearson III). The goodness-of-fit test is applied to these four distributions and the best fitted distribution is chosen as the Gamma distribution for this data set that is taken from the internet page published by Kandilli Observatory. Probable earthquake magnitudes for the return periods (T) 50 years and 100 years are also investigated for the 95% significance level by using the Gamma distribution. For an economic period of 50 years, the average return periods of critical magnitudes computed for the Risks of 10%, 5% 1% are 297, 611, 3115 years, respectively. The tectonic structure and seismic properties of Aşkale province are also given in the study. Key-Words: Frequency analysis; Earthquake; Seismic Risk; Aşkale; Goodness-of-fit test; The Northeast Anatolian Fault